There is nothing more gripping than influenza. In this lecture I will try and convey some of the recent excitement around modelling of infectious diseases, and in particular influenza—”la gripe”. The last century saw three major influenza pandemics. The worst of these was the Spanish Flu (1918-1920), often referred to as the “mother of all pandemics,” which killed an estimated 50-100 million people—some 5 percent of the world’s population. “Fortunately” mathematical modelling teams around the world were poised, when in 2009 a new flu pandemic struck.
An especially promising approach, which raises methodological challenges, requires finding ways to combine different types of medical/epidemiological data sets, each with its own strengths and weaknesses, in order to piece together an accurate picture of the epidemic and any underlying causal mechanisms. After the 2009 pandemic, we had large high-quality virological and serological data sets, as well as Google trend data at hand, thereby presenting a unique opportunity for this type of modelling with multiple datasets. We employed model-fitting techniques, in order to gain insights which could not have been obtained from each of these data sets in isolation. The model reconstructed the temporal pattern of the pandemic in five age-groups. The combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations were found to be responsible for the unique infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. School vacations were found to increase the overall epidemic magnitude by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Age-dependent optimal vaccination policies were determined.
Bio: Prof. Lewi Stone completed his university education at Monash University, worked 20-years at Tel Aviv University in Biomathematics and is now a member of RMIT School of Mathematical and GeoSpatial Sciences.
How to participate in this seminar:
1. Book your nearest ACE facility;
2. Notify Vera Roshchina at RMIT (maths.colloquia@rmit.edu.au) to notify you will be participating. Join ‘RMIT maths colloquium’ 15-30 minutes before the seminar. Meeting ID for this talk is 118604.
No access to an ACE facility? Contact Maaike Wienk to arrange a temporary Visimeet licence for remote access (limited number of licences available – first come first serve)