The societal reliance on mathematical models to support planning, technological innovation, engineering design, and business and development practices is greater than ever before in the history of civilisation. Furthermore, as availability of high speed computing increases, this trend can only continue. Therefore, the question addressed in this talk is not whether mathematical modelling is valuable or desirable – that is taken as self-evident – but rather: What are key pitfalls to guard against when mathematical models of complex phenomena are developed, implemented and used?
The rationale for referring to Plato’s Cave Parable is that it describes in a visual and an emotive way what is arguably the essence of the challenge facing most of the modern era researchers involved in the mathematical modelling of complex phenomena; especially life support systems. The challenge is that of creating a model whose outputs – Plato’s shadows of images – correspond very closely (under a wide spectrum of inputs) to the measurements of the outputs of the real phenomenon being studied. For instance, a sound model of the spread of an epidemic in a population should be able to estimate the sizes of the different cohorts affected by the disease, at various stages of the epidemic. And yet, the mathematical modelling cognoscenti will be conscious of the fact that even a best model of an epidemic is essentially distinct from the epidemic itself. It is more like a wooden figure of an animal in Plato’s parable than the animal itself.
About the speaker:
Jerzy Filar is a broadly trained applied mathematician with research interests spanning a wide spectrum of both theoretical and applied topics in Operations Research, Optimisation, Game Theory, Applied Probability and Environmental Modelling. Professor Filar co-authored three research level books. He also authored or co-authored approximately 100 refereed research papers. He is editor-in-chief of Environmental Modelling and Assessment and serves on editorial boards of Operations Research, JMAA and a number of other journals. Professor Filar is a Fellow of the Australian Mathematical Society. He has supervised 19 PhD students who are working at various universities, industries and research institutions across the world.
How to participate in this seminar:
1. Book your nearest ACE facility;
2. Notify Vera Roshchina at RMIT (maths.colloquia@rmit.edu.au) to notify you will be participating.
No access to an ACE facility? Contact Maaike Wienk to arrange a temporary Visimeet licence for remote access (limited number of licences available – first come first serve)